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"Got those OPEC Blues Again" and "Rational Exuberance"

"Got those OPEC Blues Again" and "Rational Exuberance"

Since March of 1999, when the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $13 a barrel, we have seen a steady increase in prices in all phases of the economy. OPEC, the organization that is largely responsible for setting production goals in the Middle East, was under fire to find ways to increase prices. OPEC members at this time "pledged to cut back the supply of crude and push oil prices higher." (Business Week, 48) The results were better than most expected: crude oil prices were almost $27 a barrel on November 23, 1999, the highest price since the 1991 Gulf War. (Business Week, 48) The demand for oil is outpacing current supply by 2.8 million barrels, causing some in Congress to push for relief by tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. (Business Week, 49) The rapid increases in prices have had a welcome effect on "Big Oil", however. Companies such as BP Amoco, Chevron and Royal/Dutch Shell Group have posted 15% increases in earnings (Business Week, 49) This trend is expected to continue, with L Bruce Lanni, an analyst at CIBC World Markets Inc. noting, "I see clear sailing ahead


In the case of OPEC's decision to cut supply to raise prices, it is clear that all sectors of the economy will be affected in some way. This decision causes a shift of the Aggregate Supply curve, because of the resulting increase of energy prices. Looking at Oil on a simple Supply/Demand curve, we see that the resulting decrease in supply and saying demand is equal, or ceteris paribus, results in the increase in prices that OPEC was looking for. See the following graph:



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Approximate Word count = 794
Approximate Pages = 3 (250 words per page double spaced)


  

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