In order to determine whether the claim that scientific theory cannot be proven true or otherwise we must first understand what Duhem means by scientific theory. He introduces two possibilities as to the nature of a physical (which we can equate to 'scientific') theory. The first being that it is an explanation of the reality lying behind a group of experimental laws (those that are empirically determined). The second is that a physical theory is simply an abstract s

ystem to classify and summarize a group of laws.

Duhem has a further attack on the 'crucial experiment' which explains why it cannot be used to determine the truth of a hypothesis either. Putting aside the previous argument for a moment, Duhem sees the idea of the 'crucial experiment' as one of proof through elimination. For any one observation there are presumably a finite number of explanatory theories. Therefore to determine the correct theory one must eliminate the others through the use of the crucial experiment. However this requires a knowledge of all possible theories, which is impossible. One could always imagine the existence of another hypothesis, even if one cannot think of one. Unless all possible theories could be tested the 'crucial experiment', as described by Duhem, is not complete. So now it seems it is not possible to determine the absolute truth of a theory either.

A perfect physical theory, as described, aims to describe the reality of the material things whose properties we perceive. Therefore we are inexorably lead to the conclusion that in order for a physical theory to provide an explanation we must first understand the nature of material reality. This of course assumes that there is such a reality, distinct from appearances. However, this has now become a metaphysical question (the answer cannot come from empirical evidence since this deals only in sensation). So we are presented with a problem: if the value of a physical theory depends on the metaphysical system adopted then it is impossible for such a theory to achieve universal acceptance. There are many schools of metaphysics (Aristotelian, Newtonian, atomistic and Cartesian) and all hold different ideas as to the nature of reality. They are all at odds because each can find fault with properties of matter assumed by others. In their metaphysical beliefs are in conflict then by definition so would be the physical theories they adopt.

3) The mathematical development of the theory. This is the combination of the principles expressed using mathematical analysis.

This leads into the idea of the 'crucial experiment' as first proposed by Francis Bacon. The idea here being that if one doubts a theory or hypothesis then an experiment may be designed to test this doubt. This at first seems a relatively straightforward procedure. First make a prediction of an experimental observation using the theory in question, then arrange the circumstances in which this prediction may or may not be observed. If the predicted fact is produced then the theory is supported. If the fact is not observed then the hypothesis on which the prediction was based is declared false and is rejected.

Taking the first possibility (a belief

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Approximate Word count = 1828
Approximate Pages = 7 (250 words per page double spaced)