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Y2k

Y2K pessimists are approaching their moment of truth. In seven weeks the world will, or will not, run into more trouble than most people think. Investors will, or will not, suffer last-minute jitters as the millennium draws near.

Yes, yes, I know-it's not yet the millennium, from a technical point of view. As a stern band of readers likes to remind me, only morons believe the millennium falls on Jan. 1. The 1,000-year span actually ends on the year's last day, Dec. 31, 2000.

Well, that may be their millennium, but it's not mine. I'm partying now. A more interesting question than calendar dates is whether the stock and bond markets will be partying too. Has the Y2K selling already happened (as I believe) or will it erupt in the final days? If there's the usual year-end rally-and last Friday looked good-will we wake up with a hangover?

When you read this, the Federal Reserve will probably have made its latest decision about interest rates (its open-market committee meets on Tuesday, Nov. 16). Either result-rates up or rates flat-should be good for stocks, says economist Irwin Kellner of Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. Investors will feel more secure for the next few months. The markets don't expect the Fed to raise ra


Smaller stocks still are just pooping along. "Last year was the worst year of small-cap performance relative to large-cap since 1929," says Greg McCrickard, manager of T. Rowe Price's Small Cap Stock Fund. Even small tech stocks don't measure up to the bigger guys. "The values of small caps are fairly compelling," McCrickard says, "but we don't know what would kick off a move."

Bond-fund managers have been shouting and waving their hands, trying to attract your eye. "Last year's Russian crisis, plus the Y2K effect, drove money into U.S. Treasury securities," says Martin Barnes, managing editor of the Bank Credit Analyst in Montreal. Other types of bonds now carry relatively higher rates. "That's a big opportunity," Barnes says. If you buy, you'll earn extra profits when the fixed-income markets get back to normal.

Japan funds, for that matter, are up 84 percent-on constructive financial reform and solid growth, says Adam Posen, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C. Europe has a growth story, too. For a decade, we've focused on U.S. stocks. In the '00s, it may be the internationals' turn.



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Approximate Word count = 987
Approximate Pages = 4 (250 words per page double spaced)


  

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