When I first decided to take this class I felt there was not much that when into the predictions of stock prices and the future of your economy. It is clear now that there are at least six different factors that contribute to the movement of our capital markets. At the present time our market is in what the experts call a correction period which means that it has fallen at least ten percent from a record setting date. Our economy is mist of a record boom of a one hundred and seven months. Experts a predicting the worst like they have the last twenty-four months or so. So I am going to make a prediction that the economy will continue to grow at a rate of 3.5% maybe not at the same rate as last year.
The Federal Reserve is trying to slow the growth by raising rates by a quarter of a point. The rational for this is that the economy is growing at a rate that can spark inflation soon. So far the prior four times the Federal Reserve has raised rates not much has happened. I am predicting that if the current rate hike does not effect the market, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will raise rates again in March and May to slow our prosperous economy.
The reason why a rate hike will slow down
Another important factor to predict the condition of our economy in April is the current situation of oil prices. Current oil prices have almost tripled since December 1998 when it was around $10 a barrel now the market cost of a barrel of oil is around $30. By April I am expecting to see prices around $20-25 a barrel. The reason why oil prices of risen so dramatically is because the OPEC has an agreement to control the quantity of oil extracted in fear of "global oil glut". The United States was debating the idea of selling its reserve supply in attempts to lower prices. Mr. Greenspan did not agree with this idea saying that it would be ridiculous to believe that the United States reserve supply could really have a significant long term impact on world supply.
The rise in labor productivity will lead to less unemployment, which leads to a higher economic capacity and more money circulating in the market. With a rise in capacity there will be a rise in supply. Corresponding with this rise in supply there will be more money circulating there will be a rise in private domestic demand. If the production level falters a little bit it could cause an inflationary period in the United States. This is what the Federal Reserve is scared because at the current rate it will difficult for corporations
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