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Negotiating the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

The Korean Peninsula remains one of the most unstable and dangerous places in the world today. Forty-five years after the armistice, 37,000 American troops, together with their colleagues from the R.O.K., face more than a million North Korean troops across the demilitarized zone. One of the most dangerous moments of that tense history was just four years ago, in the summer of 1994.

In 1993, isolated by the transformations of its Cold War patrons and facing a southern neighbor with growing economic power and global stature, North Korea began to bring its efforts to acquire nuclear weapons to fulfillment. Kim Il Sung's engineers had completed a large-scale plant to reprocess plutonium from spent fuel produced by North Korea's Soviet-designed graphite-moderated reactor. In addition, the North had begun constructing two larger graphite-moderated reactors, which in addition to being of unsafe design, would be capable of producing enough plutonium for a significant nuclear arsenal within a few short years.

Disputes over past production of plutonium and the monitoring of nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency led the D.P.R.K. to announce, in June 1994, its withdrawal from the IAEA; the North was al


One thing that influenced this last options in addition to the other things was the fact that the US had made progress with the DPRK, as Robert Manning says, "not when we've grabbed them by the neck and smashed the into a corner and kept smashing them" but instead when "we offered them the carrots". Like after Bush's unilateral removal of tactical nuclear weapons that North Korea made its greatest strides forward, signing the two North-South agreements as well as the IAEA safeguards. Hopmann describes punishment as equivalent in desired-caused effect with rewarding. Meaning, that one of the parties to the negotiation may influence the preferences of the parties to the dispute directly by raising the cost of nonagreement or increasing the rewards of agreement. The mediator may offer, both or either, threats and promises, sticks and carrots, in order to manipulate the preferences of the conflicting parties in such way as to create the possibility of agreement. And in a way the US decision to hold talks, most observers agree, satisfied a long-held DPRK goal. It gave the North the legitimacy of meeting across the negotiating table from the world's remaining Superpower, by so doing it also marginalized South Korea who would not be a party to the negotiation. Nor would the IAEA be directly involved, perhaps giving Pyongyang the ability to move the dialogue beyond the narrow nuclear issue to include economic and diplomatic concerns. So it really constituted the "carrots" in this case.

By late November - anxious to achieve a breakthrough before another report of IAEA to the Security Council of continuity of safeguards broken, and drawing feedback from mid-level meetings with the DPRK, as well as public signals from the chief negotiator Kang that the North wanted a package deal - the Clinton administration agreed on a new effort to engage North Korea. The so called "comprehensive package" approach, which was essentially a process realignment designed to help lure North Korea back to the table. Instead of negotiating a step at a time, both sides would lay all their demands and offers on the table at once, a method that, in theory at least could give North Korea more incentives to cooperate, as negotiation and advancement in the solution of one of the issues would positively influence or demand an improvement in the other ones. This is also known as a type of linkage, as described in "Negotiating a Complex World": 'One manifestation of linkage occurs when a negotiation that a nation conducts with an actor is tied to similar related negotiations or issues also being conducted with that actor." But the adamant opposition of South Korea to this "comprehensive approach" which they felt excluded them, and it was also seen by the right wing as a challenge to the dignity of South Korea and a derogation from the alliance commitments. In addition to the partition in the US government as to its fundamental objectives and on what they would be willing to put on the table. Despite this encountered difficulties, several meetings produced in late February the "Super Tuesday" agreement which allowed the IAEA inspectors to reenter North Korea and begin inspections; North and South were to meet at the working-level and set dates for exchange of envoys; the ROK was to cancel Team Spirit '94; and the US and North Korea were to announce a date for the third round of high level negotiations. So basically the "Super Tuesday" was a way of doing everything simultaneously and getting away from the step-by-step way. Super Tuesday at first appeared workable, till the South alarmed by apparently improving US-North Korean relationship hardened its position again. Which resulted in North Korea disrupting the IAEA's final inspections. This resulted in the IAEA Board of Governors declaring North Korea in "further non-compliance" with its safeguards agreement, and sent the matter to the UN Security Council; the US cancelled the third round of talks; and Clinton pub

Some common words found in the essay are:
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Approximate Word count = 4986
Approximate Pages = 20 (250 words per page double spaced)


  

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