Because of its uniqueness in every case, predicting the importance of elites and popular actors in a successful democratic transition from authoritarian rule is as impossible as trying to predict the day in which a baby will take its first steps. But despite the unpredictability of their nature, elite and popular actors share a vital role in the fight towards democracy: they are the force that incites and pushes the transition. Both actors may not be present in every transition, and their interests and type of action may not be the same, but their importance stems from the fact that they represent the desires of the oppressed. Elites and popular actors either independently or in conjunction bring about transition and democratization with their consistent opposition and their will to overcome an oppressive regime.

According to O'Donnell and Schmitter, when an authoritarian regime begins to redefine and extend rights that protect individuals and social groups from arbitrary or illegal acts committed by the state or third parties, liberalization has begun. This liberalization may be the result of elite negotiations and pacts, popular oppositi

ush in the history of communist Eastern Europe. Without the demands and the actions of the masses there would not have been such a successful negotiation with the Party in control; the socialists were already under a lot of pressure from the masses so they had to concede and compromise more than if they had just negotiated a pact between the elites, without the pressure of popular demands. In Panama the case was very similar. During Noriega's regime the middle and lower sectors of society were oppressed in such a way that they were the most violent and fierce in their demands against the government. It was the popular push against the dictatorship what brought about its flaking, not negotiations between the elites. In this case the elites just tried to lead the masses and utilize their - the middle and lower classes' - rashness and anger to try to overcome the dictatorship.

up is sufficiently dominant to impose all of its desires on everyone else.

on and resistance, or both. Elite pacts and negotiations are not a necessary feature of a successful transition but they can play an important role in the transition because it allows for a gradual change instead of a dramatic event (O'Donnell, 37). This occurs because at the heart of the pact there is a negotiated compromise where the actors have agreed to give up their capacity to harm each other by extending the guarantees not to threaten each other's vital interest, and in doing so they open the way for a change in the type of government, without a violent confrontation. Pacts are a compromise between the elites because no social or political gro!

Although the activation of civil society actors adds much weight, stability and credibility to a transitional democracy, they are also like elite negotiations and pacts in that civil society actors are not strictly necessary for a successful democratic transition. While in Poland the revolution began with popular strikes, in Hungary it began with a Party conference; Janos Kadar was replaced with Karoly Grosz whom the Party expected to be pragmatic and dynamic but the outcome was the opposite, the government began retreating. So much so that by late 1988 the communist regime allowed opposition groups to for and to organize demonstrations, in January of 1989 came legal guarantees of free assembly and association approved by parliament, in February the Party supported the transition to a "multi-party-system" and in April it formally abandoned the Leninist principle of "democratic centralism" (Garton, 14). The government intended to carry out the strategy of "retreat in order to a!

O'Donnell, Guillermo and Philippe C. Schmitter. Tran

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Approximate Word count = 1785
Approximate Pages = 7 (250 words per page double spaced)