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Chaos

Where Chaos begins, classical science ends. Ever since physicists have inquired into the laws of nature, they had not begun to explore irregular side of nature, the erratic and discontinuous side that has always puzzled scientists. They did not attempt to understand disorder in the atmosphere, the turbulent sea, the oscillations of the heart and brain, and the fluctuations of wildlife populations. All of these things were taken for granted until in the 1970's some American and European scientists began to investigate the randomness of nature.

They were physicists, biologists, chemists and mathematicians but they were all seeking one thing: connections between different kinds of irregularity. "Physiologists found a surprising order in the chaos that develops in the human heart, the prime cause of a sudden, unexplained death. Ecologists explored the rise and fall of gypsy moth populations. Economists dug out old stock price data and tried a new kind of analysis. The insights that emerged led directly into the natural world- the shapes of clouds, the paths of lightning, the microscopic intertwining of blood vessels, the galactic clustering of stars."(Gleick, 23)

The man most responsible for coming up with the Chaos Theory was Mit


Another element of the nonlinear dynamics, Fractals, has appeared everywhere, most recently in graphic applications like the successful Fractal Design Painter series of products. Fractal image compression techniques are still being researched, but promise such amazing results as 600:1 graphic compression ratios. The movie special effects industry would have much less realistic clouds, rocks, and shadows without fractal graphic technology. Though it is one of the youngest sciences, the Chaos Theory holds great promise in the fields of meteorology, physics, mathematics, and just about anything else you can think of.

Another word that is vital to understanding the Complexity theory is complex. What makes us determine which system is more complex then another? There are many discussions of this question. In Exploring Complexity, Nobel Laureate Ilya Prigogine explains that the complexity of the system is defined by the complexity of the model necessary to effectively predict the behavior of the system. The more the model must look like the actual system to predict system results, the more complex the system is considered to be. The most complex system example is the weather, which, as demonstrated by Edward Lorenz, can only be effectively modeled with an exact duplicate of itself. One example of a simple system to model is to calculate the time it takes for a train to go from city A to city B if it travels at a given speed. To predict the time we need only to know the speed that the train is traveling (in mph) and the distance (in miles). The simple formula would be mph/m, which is a simple system.

With complexity theory, the distinctions between the different disciplines of sciences are disappearing. For example, fractal research is now used for biological studies. But there is a question as to whether the current research and academic funding will support this move to interdisciplinary research.

The generator of unpredictability in complex systems is what Lorenz calls "sensitivity to initial conditions" or "the butterfly effect." The concept means that with a complex, nonlinear system, a tiny difference in starting position can lead to greatly varied results. For example, in a difficult pool shot a tiny error in aim causes a slight change in the ball's path. However, with each ball it collides with, the ball strays farther and farther from the intended path. Lorenz once said that "if a butterfly is flapping its wings in Argentina and we cannot take that action into account in our weather prediction, then we will fail to predict a thunderstorm over our home town two weeks from now because of this dynamic."(Lorenz 48)

The word nonlinear has to do with understanding mathematical models used to describe systems. Before the growth of interest in nonlinear systems, most models were analyzed as though they were linear systems meaning that when the mathematical formulas representing the behavior of the systems were put into a graph form, the results looked like a straight line. Newton used calculus as a mathematical method for showing change in systems within the context of straight lines. And statistics is a process of converting what is usually nonlinear data into a linear format for analysis.



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Approximate Word count = 2357
Approximate Pages = 9 (250 words per page double spaced)


  

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