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Unemployment

The economic concept involving unemployment is quite simple. When an economy is growing and is in an expansion, unemployment is usually falling; when an economy is in a recession, unemployment is usually raising, although often in a lag (Colander 140). Unfortunately, due to the events of September 11th, there was no lag. The Labor Department's November job report showed that businesses lopped off another 331,000 workers from their payrolls last month, after shedding 468,000 in October. Losses of this size are only seen in recessions. Plus, the unemployment rate continued its upward climb, reaching 5.7 percent. That is up more than a full percentage point since July, and the rate is sure to peak at well over 6 percent in 2002.

Many of the job loss occurring in the labor market today are cyclical in nature. The fluctuations in our economy (who am I kidding-I mean the sudden drop) due to the terror attacks on September 11th have created the largest sudden job loss in a few decades. It is like a vicious cycle-the economy deviates, people lose their jobs, then people quite spending, and business suffers, which creates a recession. However, the American economy has a habit of rebounding strongly. Since 1945, growth of 5


In addition to the recession's skewed impact on low-paid workers, other factors will help limit the slowdown in incomes. Clearly, the labor markets will continue to soften in coming months, but employment is declining from a historically high level, and the jobless rate is rising from an exceptionally low level. The result: Labor markets, while loosening, are still relatively tight.

Of the 760,000 or so job cuts announced since September 11th, roughly 50 percent have involved union members in the airline, travel and aerospace industries. That is nearly four times organized labor's 13.5 percent share of the United States workforce (Dept. of Labor). Even before September 11th the manufacturing industry, another labor stronghold, was struck the hard, which has whacked tens of thousands of union jobs. But consumers will likely face a tougher slog in the months ahead.

One would expect that a higher joblessness would surely dampen consumption. To be sure, the Labor Department's November job report was grim, which undoubtedly played into the Federal Reserve's December 11th decision to lower interest rates for the 11th time this year. However, consumers are continuing to surprise economists. A lot of recent economic news has been much less bad than many expected. Spending by America's army of consumers, the biggest contributors to overall demand, has held up remarkably well, particularly when it comes to buying cars. Lured by zero percent financing deals, Americans bought more than 21 million vehicles (annualized) in October, against an average rate of 17 million in the previous nine months (Economist 23). More surprising, they continued this binge in November, buying more than 18 million cars. In recent years the cheerful willingness of Americans to get out their credit cards at the least provocation from retailers has made fools out of pessimists. But a new surge of sp

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Approximate Word count = 1268
Approximate Pages = 5 (250 words per page double spaced)


  

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