Book Critique of The Logic of Failure by Dietrich Dorner
Why do trains crash when the signals are working? Why does a nuclear reactor melt down with all operators alert at their posts? Why do so many of well-planned professional and personal plans frequently do not accomplish desired results? Dietrich Dorner, considers why we make mistakes which result in terrible outcomes even though we have intelligence, experience, and information about the issues we had made decisions. According to Dorner, it is not because of our negligence or carelessness, but because of what he calls the "logic of failure". By this concept he means that there is certain tendencies in our patterns of thought such as considering one aspect at a time, cause and effect, and linear thinking. In other words, we make decisions and conclusion that would work appropriately in a simple world but which have serious and disastrous consequences for the complex world we live in. The author gives plenty of examples in his book. He bases a lot of examples on his absorbing computer stimulation invention. According to the findings he made, he exposes us to the flaws we have in our ways of thinking. He uses various examples: Why did the Aswan Dam planners who induced the cheap electricity to Egypt not realize that they
As a conclusion, unfortunately decision makers behave is not based the way the external environment actually is but, rather, on what they see or believe it to be. In order to improve individuals decision making, they have to analyze the situation carefully and be aware of biases as well as combine rational analysis with intuition. Also, one must notice that one specific decision style is not appropriate for every situation. One should tailor decision making methods to his personal strengths and weaknesses since every person is a unique individual with innate characteristics, and has knowledge and experience that no one else possesses. His purpose was to make " The Logic of Failure" a corrective tool and a guide for intelligent planning and decision making. However, I do not agree that the examples presented in the book were good. For instance the author went on and on with the AIDS example which he could have shorten to a couple pages. In addition he could have used more real life examples like Titanic, and the wars that have taken place in the world. There is a certain pattern how decision-makers identify and select problems. I agree with the author that problems that are visible tend to have a higher probability of being selected than ones that are really important. That is because of the fact that they are so much easily to be recognized. Decision-makers want to appear competent and on top of problems. Their self-interest affect problem selection because it is usually in the decision-maker's best interest to address problems of high visibility and high payoffs. This demonstrates an ability to perceive and attack problems. The decision model can be applied into any sit
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Approximate Word count = 1144
Approximate Pages = 5 (250 words per page double spaced)
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